On the tails of things.
Kurtosis Economics advises leaders on the questions where the average answer fails -- where outcomes live in the tails. We practice two disciplines, economic strategy and technical due diligence, each built on rare experience and held to a high standard.
World-class depth in the economics of statecraft and rivalry and competition at many scales: how nations, firms, and markets compete when the stakes extend past balance sheets. We bring rigorous theory to bear on national-security decision-making and on private competition (sanctions posture and exposure, supply-chain leverage, industrial capacity, market power, hedging of unique risks, epistemic uncertainty description, ...) and on the strategies available to those who move before others do.
Wherever possible, we quantify, and where quantification fails we say so plainly.
Experience formed inside the world’s leading research and development organizations in which technologies are made, judged, funded, and sometimes quietly abandoned. We evaluate technical claims, teams, and roadmaps with skepticism earned by having built things ourselves.
Our signature methodology. Most assessments are written to be believed; ours are written to be reversed. Every conclusion is paired with its contrary case and the specific evidence that would overturn it — so that what remains standing has earned its place. The result is diligence the logic of which can be checked, both by-hand and formally, from either direction, and findings that hold their shape under adversarial review. The full method is disclosed to clients.
Enquiries
We take a small number of engagements each year.
kurtosis-economics.impound751@passmail.net